Spring you say? Get the Pimms while the offers are still on!

So I’ve been busy…. Ok, that was deviating from the truth. I’ve been busy pretending to be busy, let’s go for that.

So as the week beginning the 9th is about to end, I’m sure we can all recap on how lovely the weather has been, sunny, clear, warm…ish, spring ahoy! Then we get a day like Saturday where it tricked you, it appears sunny and clear and yet really it was actually quite bitter and cold outside. So why the deceit Mrs Weather?! Well as few people read this, and I’m sure you read others weather pages, I’m sure you know why, but I shall explain in case you wanted to read it again 😉

Cast your mind back to Wednesday 11th, for much of the South East it was clear, sunny and reasonably warm. By looking at the surface pressure charts for the day you can see that South England has high pressure which is from Northern Spain (circled red).

cvnxvnxnx

In the image now for the 14th you can again the UK has High Pressure but from Scandinavia, this is, technically, ‘A beast from the east’, and if this was in Winter this would bring very very cold temperatures and snow. However now that it’s spring, a sudden chill in the air is all that it will bring (circled and arrowed red below).

gsgshs

In fact this will remain for a few days, however by the time we get to Tuesday 17th we again see high pressure from the Atlantic which will bring some slightly warmer temperatures.

ukmaxtemp (1) h500slp (11)

The differences in these two have been noted, where they originate  from. The high pressure from the Atlantic comes about and builds from warmer weather nearer the Tropics, the high develops and moves across up towards the UK bringing some of that warmer weather and little moisture (obviously gets weaker due to latitudinal variations).

Comparing this to the Scandinavian High Pressure as noted, this forms from colder regions, builds to high pressure and squeezes downwards pushing into the low pressure and hovers over the UK for a while. The reason why it is not has cold and white is due to the time of year.

So the question needing to me asked, is spring on the way?

Well it looks like in the last few weeks of March we will see some warmer weather with temperatures moving into double figures a bit more often. However, we also do see some more rain pushing through, but that is extremely positive for summer 🙂

More posts to follow.

Spring is coming 😉

Bambs,

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Flirting with Cold

So the last time I wrote, I was banging on about the October Pattern Index (OPI) like it was the last night in Rome. Well the theory of the OPI is still very much relevant and the talk of the town, but underline the term theory for it is only that. In the same why I’m beautiful but somehow single and why Politicians useless unless they want something. All theories, but some have a greater deal of scientific study than others.

The theory does though remain that the OPI and its friends in the “lets predict the next sledging exercise (excuse cricket pun)”, trends and patterns do somewhat point to an event like a Sudden Stratospheric Warming where the Polar Vortex breaks away and hits Britain like a can of Wife Beater, and suggests the best time of such is in January (historically January and February are the coldest months. It’s hard being obvious at times). Yet there is evidence to suggest that even now with the Polar Vortex being weak, the Arctic Oscillation being a negative nancy, that this could happen sooner rather than later. I would love say, it will, but we all know the atmosphere is just a little more complex than that, after all it is only November and not even “winter yet” 😉

“But Bambi, you say it’s only November and yet in 2010 the UK got loads of snow and now in the USA is getting whiter than a freshmans wet dream about Kims bum!!!” Alas, part of that is probably true, but 2010 was a strange and really exception to the rule. But partly what is happening in the USA is having an effect on us, and while I’m down this line of enquires I will again dispel myth no. 707.

November 28th 2010. Yeah.gfsnh-2010112812-0-12

What the models suggest November 27th 2014. Temperatures would be low but will bring rain

gfsnh-0-186

Myth no.707 (not real number but there’s a lot of them) is as followed: “What the US gets, we get 2 weeks later”. My only guess was this once stretched to music and TV and now has moved over to meteorology. Short answer, no. Long answer, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.  The gap between us and North America and vast and pressure systems change. It is extremely rare that we get snow and cold from the west, north west due to the Atlantic being warm (latent and specific heat capacity of water) during winter and the winds.

The weather in the USA has got a lot of people giddy, including myself. Images of 70 inches of snow is enough to do similar what Kims bum does to freshmans, but I digress. Buffalo in New York has been under the effect of what is termed by the Lake-snow effect. Very interesting, basically cold air moves across a huge body of water (the lakes of North America) this provides them with moisture, the moisture freezes and dumps its deposits in pretty much the same diameter of the lake. Go 10 miles north, east, south of Buffalo and the snowfall, tis but a dusting.

10802085_1597235793832849_2685212454097724_n

And before you think, no, the lake-snow effect can never happen here. There has been other snowfall in the USA due to several  low pressure systems  mixing with high pressure and some cold air. This all does have relevance to the UK, the pressure differences of North America as such and the Gulf fuel the jet stream which becomes stronger. Heard this story before? Yep, it was the cause of last winters wet and mild boring run! I will now hastily remind you that it is only November so relax 😉

Short term it means we will see some unsettled wet weather again, this is normal for this time of year. Yet, as I write this, I am reminded of the title of my post “flirting with cold”, so why did I call it that?

Well, firstly I know the argument about models, so leave that one in the treasure chest for another day 😉

Secondly the model outputs, both short General Forecast System (GFS) and long term and trends show similar patterns of the UK flirting with cold, or what I should say, is that the models show cold flirting with the UK. Cold air, cold fronts and Scandinavian highs and a weak Polar Vortex are all being showed to impact, effect, and touch the UK in various scenarios. I even alluded to one particular pattern a few days ago for the end of November.

gfsnh-0-336 Flirt.

As people know, I am a snow lover (not literally to popular belief) but I certainly love the white stuff (I’m so funny and yet NOONE LAUGHS) anyway, yes. I love snow and the cold, my love for winter actually made me want to learn, and wish to one day make this into a profession but that’s for another day. Last winter was of course a massive disappointment but one which due to the events rolling up before winter, was not a total shock to the system. This winter however is different, I mentioned at the start and many professional reports do state that the cards have been dealt and the UK holds a decent hand, now all what is needed is for the game to begin and unfold. This is where we bring back the theories such as the OPI, how it seems to predict that, around the new year, Europe (does not specifically mention the UK) will be subjected to cold blocking periods where in areas snowfall could be plenty. The OPI reading this year was the second largest (negative numbers ever recorded only since 1976), the lowest being 2009…..But it is only a theory, and a theory is only as good until it goes wrong. Interestingly the OPI has a habit of being right. Sudden Stratospheric Warming tends to be the reason why deep cold Arctic air plunges into the UK and gives us the shivers, and these events looking to starting to take place now, which gives sight that maybe around December time, January we could see snow.

Obviously this is only one part of the jigsaw puzzle, Sea Surface Temperatures are at their highest in a very long time, and although it is true that they should be high due to latent and specific heat capacity of water, the Atlantic oscillation plays just as an important part to our atmosphere so what can we make of that? Are you getting slightly confused yet?

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If I was to paint the full picture here, it would be a pointless post because people who think they can paint the full picture can only come up with one answer at the end of it, which is “you never know”.

That is the reason why models that create future patterns at any great length are next to useless, too many variables. This is why I like sticking with a few in my posts and talking from them. The point of this post is to show what the title suggests and what a few of you might have forgotten. Winter variables for snow and cold will play their part in the weather of the UK this winter, I can say that with a great deal of confidence, the cards the UK holds are good! But remind yourself that it is only late November, winter has not yet started. This time of the year it’s normal to be dominated by the Atlantic. The cold and snowy weather statically will play their part in January I believe.  But I am someone who sees the last week in December very interesting 😉

148645_1729888765202_530141_n

Any questions please ask and please show a bit of love

Bambi,

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The OPI – Maybe, just maybe.

Spooky or Snoowy

So as November creeps into the year again, it’s a time for realisation that Christmas is very much on the countdown.  It’s is also a time for total media bullshit about the winter weather, especially when the record for the warmest Halloween is about to be smashed! Yet as the old saying goes “even a broken clock is right twice a day” and in some kind of twisted motion, this is correct (minus the media bullshit), as this winter, if trends and patterns go the way they have done in previous years could be a very cold and at times white one!

As like the media last year caught hold of the term “polar vortex” last year and treated it like something out of Star Trek, the media and bullshit weather reports have picked up on the October Pattern Index (OPI).The OPI (for Europe) is very interesting, but the bore of the matter is this; the OPI has a correlation of r=.90!!! This value is incredibly high and accurate for something which looks at weather patterns and determines them in October. What this means is that whatever the value the OPI finally reaches at the end of October, it is 90% confident the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will behave in correlation of the value.

Now, I’m throwing phrases at you like Taio Cruz (see, I’m still hip), the AO is a measure of dominant weather patterns over the Arctic areas. In basic terms the AO is either positive or negative (a lot more complex), a positive AO leads to the cold Arctic air locked at the poles, a negative AO leads to cold Arctic air being free to push into mid latitudes.

Here is where I still keep you all in suspense in what this really means and this is when I throw that term “polar vortex” at you again! The polar vortex is always here, even now it sits there, looming. It is a large scale area of cold Arctic air going round in a vortex….Hardly a notion of threat, chaos and Star Trek.

The interesting thing is that the polar vortex is fuelled and kept in check by the strong winds of the rossby waves (where the jet stream is located). If and when the winds are weakened the polar vortex gets weak and therefore moves down.

SO! Basically the state of play is this:

  • A positive AO means the winds of the rossby waves will remain strong – meaning the polar vortex will be strong and stay together.
  • A negative AO means the winds of the rossby waves will be weak and slow – meaning the polar vortex will be weak and could be displaced.

I know that face

I know that face you’re pulling right now.

OPI

Where does this leave our lovely OPI?

Well,  the lower the OPI index is (negative values), would suggest that too the AO will be weak, therefore a weak polar vortex. However any positive numbers in the OPI or very high negative values would suggest a strong AO and therefore a strong polar vortex.

To give you some examples of recent OPIs:

2013 – OPI = +1.6 = Wet and mild winter

2009 – OPI = -3.6 = Cold and white winter

1976 – OPI = -1.75 = In the early months of 1977 the Thames froze.

Current OPI… *drum roll* = -2.13.

classic_supercellsnow

UK – Winter in 2009/2010.

Now this does NOT mean we will be plunged into Arctic doom and hell has as much chance of freezing over as I do at getting laid (laugh). This does not mean the UK will get snow, it does not mean that the English Channel will freeze over and we can walk to France, neither does it mean that the winter will be like the Sudan. The point is this, with a correlation regression figure of 0.90 the OPI is something that could be a very good and solid indication of the winter coming for EUROPE. That could mean France and all gets gobbed with snow and we get a singular flake. Yet it also could mean we get as white as a bride on her honeymoon…

t560yp

But…

Now of course there are other factors which affect our winter weather. As some of you might note, the polar vortex last year was incredibly weak as nearly the whole of North America was plunged into the winter abyss. In short the reason is this – there is always part of the polar vortex over Baffin Island (Canada), unusual high temperatures and storms in Indonesia created varied pressure that squeezed the polar vortex to move down – these two pressure differences actually was the main reason why the jet stream was so strong and why we got very very wet. It does not take a great deal to upset the apple cart (hence why the Met Office needs a bugger ton of cash for a new computer 😉 ).

Now this winter, we know no great pressure differences will occur so it could be said, and I shall say it; the stage is set. The OPI is low, patterns are trending, long range forecast predict moments of blocking, all what is needed now is time.

No guarantee and if I build hopes up here then partly I’m glad. I suggest at some point during this winter will we see a very harsh cold spell for Europe that will move into the UK. Especially if France receives well, the South East corner of England lots too (a polar low) can loom for weeks. The winter however will not be all cold and white, we might not see this till January and from week to week it will vary. But as a friendly tip of the cap I would suggest we could see some harsh weather this winter.

And for good measure a white Christmas is currently at 20% 😉

Enjoy

Any questions please ask,

James,

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Tornadoes – How they form and how they differ from the UK to our American counterparts!

So late last week, the UK saw a number of tornadoes in places such as Derbyshire, the Wirral and noticeably in Cumbria where this image was taken.

Tornado in Cumbria

As well as other tornadoes that have occurred in the UK in the 21st century (it averages out at around 1 per year), we should remember the 2005 Birmingham tornado which was an F2 on the Fujita scale (this is how tornadoes are measured – more on that later). The question then remains, does tornado formation over the UK pose a threat, or is it just a blip on the ol’ radar. First and foremost, how do tornadoes form…

FORMATION

Tornado formation steams from thunderstorm formation. They form under cumulonimbus clouds which are in essence thunderstorms. Therefore tornadoes can develop in any situation where cumulonimbus clouds can form – frontal boundaries, squall lines, mesocale convective complexes (MCC), supercells and tropical cyclones. Yet formation in all of these are uncommon, as tornadoes require a great deal of vertical instability (energy), in which predominately supercells and MMC cells can give.

The main trigger for tornado formation within thunder cells is the presence of wind shear (variations of winds of direction and velocity). This creates a vortex of airflow within the system and creates mesocyclones which aids tornado formation as it provides the initial rotation.These mesocyclones start of as horizontal rotation but due to the vertical wind shear and an increase in wind speed they move to vertical rotations. These then decrease in rotation, allowing wind speed to increase and this causes the rotation air to stretch downward, this forms a wall cloud which  acts a gust front (draws up moisture)

thunderstorm drawing

Now if you pardon the “amazing” artwork done by myself, you can clearly understand it 😉

As the wall cloud is lower to the surface and with a strong wind shear, it draws up moisture. The next stage before a tornado is formed is that a funnel cloud is formed from the wall cloud, this is due to air being drawn upward – the only difference between a funnel cloud and a tornado is that a funnel cloud has not touched the ground, once it has, it becomes a tornado.

Funnel cloud over Folkestone

See the funnel cloud here spiralling down. From thunderstorms, more than one tornado tends to form. Although most tornadoes last only a matter of minutes, the conditions for formation last much longer. There is no better place to monitor and to learn about tornadoes than Tornado Alley in the USA. TornadoTracks_4fbd458d255c5

Taken from the NOAA – see image for source

Tornadoes on average do not last long. In the U.S where Tornado Alley is located variations in duration do occur; from  a few minutes to hours. In fact the longest tornado recorded to be a massive 3 and a half hours.  In fact a now infamous outbreak in America was April 25-28th, 2011, where in 3 day, 355 tornadoes were confirmed. Some reaching EF4 and EF5’s. In total over 300 people were killed.

Coverage of tornadoes can stretch to 2 or 3 miles in diameter although many tend to be small. NB the tornadoes mentioned in the media and get the reputation of destruction are mainly the large and intense tornadoes, which tend to affect property. In fact tornado related damage and insurance is huge in America, costing high billions every year. That is actually a trend, not of more tornadoes (que climate change discussion) but a trend that increased exposure and wealth was the most important driver for disaster loss. A paper by Bouwer et al (2007) state “economic losses from meteorological disasters have increased fivefold within the past 30 years.”

Wind Speeds

As noted earlier, the Fujita scale was mentioned. Similar to the Simpson Saffir scale (the scale of measuring hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones) this is also based on a scale of 0-5 and is based on 3 second wind speed (mph). The scale ranges as followed:

EF0 – 65-85mph

EF1 – 86-110mph

EF2 – 111-135mph

EF3 – 136-165mph

EF4 – 166-200mph

EF5 – 201+mph

Higher the rating, higher the wind speed, greater the damage 😉

There is a lot more tornadoes, this is barely scratching the surface. If you wish to learn more visit pages such as the tornado wiki page. Never underestimate the wiki page, just make sure for clarity you use the external and referenced pages at the bottom, amazing sources.

Tornadoes in the UK

Now, we should all know, tornadoes in the UK are rare especially large destructive ones. Yet it is true, but be careful with the wording, the UK does get more tornadoes than the USA relative to it’s land area. Some media headlines will bash on that and play the card “oh look at us” but we all know who experiences the worst tornadoes and therefore the greater damage. But if that is the case and we do, per land mass get more tornadoes than the USA, why do we not see more EF4’s and EF5’s?

It comes down to our climate again and the conditions needed for thunderstorm development. Very roughly, Tornado Alley is much larger than the whole of the United Kingdom, second of all it’s climate:

  • Tornado Alley is in the great plains, dominated by high pressure, maritime tropical and continental air masses during the summer that are hot, moist and unstable
  • The UK is a maritime dominated climate dominated by, well, variation 😉 – 5 different air masses in various time periods which can change due to slight changes in the climate.

However, an occurrence of a tornado in any place populated can cause damage, in many cases fatal.

PAY-Mini-Tornado-hits-Derbyshire

Source – The Mirror

The Point

The point however is that the UK rarely get tornadoes regardless of that quote. We do get the conditions for tornadoes and when we do get them, they tend to be weak, many actually are mistaken for funnel clouds.

However the point I shall make is a simple one. Providing urbanisation and population expands, so does the percentage chance that tornadoes will cause more damage, make no mistake if only a weak tornado strikes property the damage can be high. One of the main points into why the damage and insurance is so high in the USA, is that many people choose to live in Tornado Alley because land is cheap, houses can be big, work is predominately primary and because it’s a nice area. Regardless of the warning from mother nature. Call me a cynic, but in a way, that’s a big gamble and a bit foolish 😉

 

Hope this is helpful and please comment

Any question, please ask,

 

Bambi

 

Posted in Bambridge, Canterbury, CCCU, Education, Folkestone, Geography, James, James Bambridge, Meteorology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

SNOW EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES TO DROP! WHY?! Because it’s Winter….

Now this post is more going to be tongue in cheek than others i write but when it comes to this time of month i get giddy as the next weather enthusiast, why? Because winter is my favourite season 🙂

I love those cold clear crisp mornings with the sun out, a heavy frost and bitterly cold, beautiful! Or a bucket of snow being deposited on us at night and everything going silent. Fantastic scenes that i personally love, and im sure you lot do to. Oh yeah and Christmas 😉

Image

(This was taken by me at the North downs looking over Folkestone on, i believe 29th November 2010.)

Now i missed our winter last year as i was in Canada so i had a marked different one from you lot. But what i missed more than anything were the newspaper articles. Those loving tabloid articles on weather using fantastic known weather forecasters and websites, yep sure, I missed them! I missed them simply because it would be better and less hassle to ask Nellie the Elephant what the weather would do:

Image

Take it away Nellie.

Yes, im referring to scaremongering/brain-farting tabloid rubbish that the Daily Express and others often published. This being my favourite – http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-news-showbiz+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+News+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29 Now i am aware that George Monbiot from The Guardian wrote this post about certain Express weather posts. If you wish to take a read, here is the link – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jun/15/daily-express-weather-forecast-jonathan-powell

But i will give the Daily Express one thing, it gets us talking about it, normally with very bright and colourful language and that some head-hitting-desk syndrome follows. That is why im happy! It gives me and im sure others a lot of laughs from, but the more serious issue is that people do actually believe this muck, it’s slightly worrying. So, what’s the best way to prevent this? Give a real weather report!

So without anymore hesitation here is my own weather forecast for the build up to Christmas. (Note – i; am not forecaster, do not have access to models (only pubic domain ones), but saying all this, i am pretty awesome 😉

Air Masses

It’s winter, it’s going to get cold and probably snow.

Yes, that is true but i will do into more detail 🙂

Winter in Britain is a funny month, funnier than others, you will find many conflicting reports about short term forecasts for the countries i.e. temperature drops, amount of precipitation, type of precipitation, wind direction etc etc. This is because the UK suffers from  5 different types of air masses converging, bringing all different types of weather, or that i like to call is, Britain suffers from a personality disorder, but i digress.

These 5 types of air masses are:

Tropical Continental (comes from North Africa – mainly occurs in Summer)

Tropical Maritime (Comes from over the warm Atlantic ocean – thus tends to be warm and moist air. Is our predominant south westerly wind direction)

Polar Continental (Comes from Eastern Europe. Tends to only occur in winter as during the summer with temperatures higher it becomes tropical continental (MetOffice).

Polar maritime (Comes from North Canada/Greenland – Follows the Westerlies [winds in the upper atmosphere] is classed as a quite unstable air mass due to its moisture quantity and changes from cold to warm temperatures. Very common to the British Isles.)

Arctic Maritime (Cold, cold and colder but not very moist. But Polar low pressures can frequently form and this is one reason why the eastern and south eastern places get a ton of snow – Never guess where it comes from ;))

Ok so air masses tend to control types of weather we get, the reason why winter varies more is than others are the slight temperature differences that the UK suffers from being an Island. Coastal regions are warmer during the winter because of the specific heat capacity of water relative to land. Water heats up slower and releases it slower compared to land. These small variations can be the difference between snow and rain. Described here by me last year (Yeaaahhh https://jbambers.wordpress.com/2012/11/09/snow-its-all-fun-and-games/ selfless propaganda).

Now the main reason why its varies most to me is that England it always rains and when small subtle shifts in temperature change the promise from snow to rain i cry. Anyway, time for the forecast, see didnt delay long 😉

 Christmas Build Up (Mostly focused South East) – THE FORECAST

I promised a forecast right at the top, much much later, here it is 🙂

Winter flurries have already hit some parts of the country here and there, with others being cold and i know from last night and tonight temperatures are around the minus numbers, given us an early wake up call that winter is with us, but it’s not going to really kick off yet. SO DON’T WORRY.

High pressure is set to remain over the UK for the rest of the week and into next. It will remain cold and more or less dry, but bringing sunny spells with the chill still around. This will carry into the early part of December.

As it moves into the 2nd week of December reports suggest that low pressure will finally take hold, from likely polar continental converging this will lay claim to probably bringing the first snow fall to the South East of this round of winter. However too early to say weather (get it) will produce anything worthy of disruption (NB – Uni people going home, no reason to be concerned, [Bron] 😉 ). From reports and how currently we are going, light snow flurries, and maybe the odd chance of rain to coastal areas are likely. But all remaining cold at least to a certain day in late December.

January and February tends to be when we get our snow – But as the opening picture suggests, that was November. So why that much snow in November – I’ll let this article tell you. 😉 Beware the polar vortex 😉

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/cold-coming-week-long-will-last/

Any quires or questions, feel free to post 🙂

Bambi,

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Storm – It’s about time something happened!

Yes yes yes, i know i’ve been away for a long time. I must admit, after the uni work load in Canada, i arrived back in the UK feeling fresh and ready to write more, and then, somehow, lost all motivation to do so. It was actually pretty upsetting and disappointing. But now uni has started again, (3rd and final year) i have found Mr Motivation again, so lets get writing!

And what better way to start than the prospect of a lovely fierce (for UK measures) storm to hit the Island. As the title suggests, it’s about time something happened!!

Why is said Storm different and therefore a problem? 

As far as i am aware the storm which is currently building and bubbling in the Atlantic has not been named (please correct me if i am wrong) so for the purpose of this post, the storm will be smartly named Mr Storm. So why is Mr Storm different from any other?

Firstly we’ll just look at the North Atlantic for a little case study, don’t want this getting too complicated. Even for me!!

Met office surface pressure chart for today for reference- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1382659200

Look at any surface pressure chart and you will see lows an highs around the world, all doing there thing. Now focusing on the North Atlantic, currently in fact if you were to look at the a surface pressure chart for the UK you would see quite a strong low for 990mb with a occluded front, which Aguado and Burt (2013) say are “A front found in the late stages of a mid-latitude cyclone.” But this low pressure system which is now in lapse is no threat to anything (apart from it bringing wet, cold, and a tad windy weather to the North of the Country) so that’s all well and good. Just like most other low pressure systems.

But if you want to understand why Mr Storm is different from other low pressure systems knocking around the Atlantic at this time of year we need to look at other charts and other data. Just looking at a surface pressure chart to try and find the answer is a bit like wanting a cup of tea but just boiling the kettle and leaving it. You do the most important step but nothing else.

So firstly the location of these 2 low pressure systems are slightly different. Yes both are in the North Atlantic, but Mr Storm is located much more south than the other mentioned above. This leads to the main reason for this low pressure system being a nonsense, because this low pressure system is on the cusp of the polar jet stream. Jet streams (polar and sub tropical) are found in the near the tropopause – the boundary between the troposphere [where we are. Yay!]  where temperature decreases with altitude and the stratosphere where temperature increases with altitude (Barry and Chorely, 2010). An image of this can be seen here – http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/lect/earth/atmosphere.html

Anyway, the polar jet stream is a current of fast flowing air which moves west to east, known as westerlies. These are located 7–12 km above sea level. Now the polar jet stream changes location all the time, by that i mean it gets displaced north and south throughout the year for various reasons. However it basically acts as a dividing line between cold polar air masses and warm tropical air masses. This time of year the polar jet stream comes more south, so currently its over the Britain and north France in its normal meander shape.

Image

This image of Monday forcasted chart was taken from http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jeps&HH=60&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO= and editted by myself in paint. (Dont’ judge 😉 ) the thick red lines poorly drawn is roughly the lines that follow the polar jet stream. The red circled area is this low pressure system. And the black arrow, on the direction it’s moving.

It just so happens that at the surface, there is a low pressure system (Mr Storm) where the jet stream is. Now due to the work of divergence (Horizontal air flows resulting in a net outflow of air) and convergence (Horizontal air flows resulting in a net inflow of air) Aguado and Burt (2013), the mixing of hot and cold air, rising and sinking air, the jet stream is intensifying the storm at an alarming rate! The people over at Netweather posted earlier and this gem of a quote is what, in a nut shell this low pressure system is doing “This low pressure has the potential to push a meteorological ‘Turbo’ button.” To check out the full post – follow this link – http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news%3Bstoryid%3D5478%3Bsess%3D&utm_source=nw&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsmail

So it’s different from other low pressure systems as it has the jet stream intensifying it at an alarming rate simply because of its location, it being further south than the others. Now we know why it’s different, why should we be concerned?

Concerned? 

It’s pressure is set to be at 976mb by Sunday evening/Monday. This is very low, to place in context, hurricanes by pressure definitions are similar. The storm has hurricane strength winds, due to its pressure. By classification, the Saffir-simpson scale, which is a classification for the intensity of hurricanes, if just by looking at pressure would place this storm in category 2, but its very much on the boarder with 1. But due to the formation of Mr storm, it’s hard to classify as it’s mid-latitude storm formed by the intensity of the jet stream. But just for reference and context, it’s similar to a category 1 or 2 hurricane by classification. Now with that lowness of pressure comes high winds. Winds are expected to be around 70-90mph with variations of -+10 in places. Now this could cause damage such as fallen trees, mobile homes could be damaged, fences, small pieces of debris etc etc. For Monday it could be quite hazardous.

RARE

The main reason why this has got alot of hype is that is happens very very rarely for Britain to get anything like this. It might sounds slightly dumb to other countries but here it’s a pretty big deal!!

So if you’re out in it on Monday, travelling to work, uni (like me) just be prepared and side on caution when driving etc. Might take you a little by surprise. But there is no reason to panic or worry. It will just be on a larger scale than a normal blustery day in the south.

If you have any questions about the post please comment. If you think its any good and helped in any way please also write., Hopefully i have made it a tad clearer for some people 🙂

References for this is as followed:

AGUADO, E., BURT, J.E. (2013) Understanding Weather and Climate. (6th Edition).

Barry, R.G. & Chorley, R.J. (2010) Atmosphere, Weather and Climate (9th Edit.)

Met Office. (2013) (Accessed 25th October 2013)  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1382659200

Net Weather (2013) Turbo boost to storm possible end of week. (Accessed 25th October 2013) http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news%3Bstoryid%3D5478%3Bsess%3D&utm_source=nw&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsmail

The Earth’s Atmosphere. (Accessed 25th October 2013) http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/lect/earth/atmosphere.html

Weather Online (2013) Weather maps. (Acessed 25th October 2013) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jeps&HH=60&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

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Social Media!

Yes, i know. I have promised twice that my next post would be my Atmosphere on climate. But, hey, third times a charm 😉

This is just letting you know that i now have a twitter account linked to my blog. It will be used to blog my views on science in general. Also to retweet other articles etc etc. The general stuff 🙂

My other twitter account is more my own personal life associated with Football mainly. So i thought to split it up into a more professional account would be a better idea 🙂

Anyway, here is the link: Follow freely 🙂 https://twitter.com/Jbambers

WP_000765

The weather currently in Lethbridge. Snowing with extremely dark clouds. Beautiful eh. Shouldn’t be too much in the way of snow, a few CMs at most.

Have a day great all 🙂

Bambi,

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